Election gains by Catalan separatists spurred their independence drive
in a setback for regional President Artur Mas that may deepen his
stand-off with Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy. Mas, who called
early elections to force the debate on independence, lost a dozen
seats in the 135-member regional assembly, getting 50 for his
Convergencia i Unio party in yesterday's vote. The separatist Catalan
Republican Left, known as ERC, more than doubled its seats to 21 from
10. Almost two- thirds of the seats went to parties that back a
referendum.
The setback for Mas showed his bid for a mandate backfired, leaving
him dependent on anti-austerity separatists to govern Spain's largest
regional economy. Rajoy, hurt by recession and speculation that Spain
needs a European bailout, says a referendum on secession is
unconstitutional.
"Once Rajoy gets over dancing about the fact that Mas has not had a
good result, he's going to realize that this is not a good result for
him at all," Ken Dubin, a political scientist at Carlos III University
and IE business school in Madrid, said in an interview. "It's going to
be hard for him to argue that this is not something that the Catalan
population supports. And CiU will have to put the brakes on their
austerity."
Rajoy's People's Party won 19 seats, a gain of one. The Socialists
took 20 seats, down from 28. Mas, who had not made independence a core
issue until the campaign, has pledged a referendum within four years.
Catalan Separatists
In contrast, ERC, which has always defined itself in terms of Catalan
separatism, wants a vote by 2014 at the latest. Failing that, it would
be willing to declare independence unilaterally. While Mas's
traditional voters include Catalonia's business elite, ERC calls
itself leftist. It proposes new taxes on banking and wealth and
opposes austerity.
Catalan bonds were little changed after the vote and the extra yield
investors demand on Catalonia's 2018 notes compared with Spanish
equivalents narrowed 3 basis points to 526 basis points. Spain's
benchmark 10-year bond yield was unchanged at 5.62 percent.
Conceited Intruders
"Those who have come out of this most strengthened are those who spoke
most explicitly of independence," ERC leader Oriol Junqueras told
cheering supporters in Barcelona. At the ERC's headquarters, Junqueras
was greeted last night with cheers and chants of "In-de-pen-dence."
After his address, the crowd raised their clenched fists as he led
them in a rendition of the Catalan anthem, which is about driving away
"conceited and contemptful" intruders.
Mas has blamed tax transfers to the rest of Spain for the area's
financial woes and has pushed for independent tax collection. The
region transfers 15 billion euros ($19 billion), or 8 percent of its
output.
Like nationalist leaders before him, Mas wove past heroism with
present adversity into a campaign narrative that portrayed Catalonia
escaping from a Spanish state that is holding it back. In a speech on
the eve of the national celebration Sept. 11 that drew 1.5 million
people, he urged Catalans to draw inspiration from their history in
tackling the financial crisis.
"It's backfired for Convergencia, but the project of independence is
still pretty much alive," Alejandro Quiroga, senior lecturer in
Spanish history at Newcastle University in England, said in a
telephone interview.
Chastened after the results, Mas said he won't be able to govern
alone. He will talk to ERC and the Socialist party to seek to form a
"strong government," whether that's a coalition or a minority
administration with "clear" support from other lawmakers in
Parliament, he told reporters today. A government may be formed in
December or early January, he said.
While the result was far from what the party expected and wanted, it
"hasn't occurred" to Mas to resign and the party wouldn't let him if
it had, Josep Duran i Lleida, his deputy, said at the same news
conference.
The 7.5 million Catalans make up 16 percent of the Spanish population
and last year contributed 19 percent of the country's economic output.
Madrid is the second-biggest regional economy, with 18 percent of
national output. Catalonia is the country's most-indebted region, with
total borrowing of 48.5 billion euros.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-11-25/catalan-pro-independence-parties-win-exit-poll-shows
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