seeking independence have won a majority of seats in the regional
parliament. I spoke about the outcome with Ferran Requejo, a professor
of political science at Pompeu Fabra University in Barcelona.
What do the regional election results in Catalonia mean in terms of a
mandate for a referendum on independence?
The referendum issue was the most important issue that was at stake in
this election. The final results show that parties which backed this
process to call for a referendum are a stable majority. They have 87
MPs out of 135. That means that 64.4 percent of the Catalan MPs
support [the idea] that the government must call for a referendum for
a potential Catalan independent state within Europe.
But the loser within this election has been the main Catalan political
party, which is called Convergencia i Unio [Convergence and Union].
They have lost 12 seats -- from 62 to 50. And that means that
[Catalonian President Artur Mas and] the leadership of this
secessionist party has been weakened.
Can the parties which favor an independence referendum put aside their
differences on other issues long enough to form a government and call
for an independence referendum?
Now the most probable outcome is that the new government must be a
coalition government of Convergencia i Unio as the first party plus a
second party -- and they can choose between three parties. Esquerra
Republicana de Catalunya [Republican Left of Catalonia], which is a
leftist and independent party, is the most probable coalition
[partner]. That is, a coalition between the first and second political
parties. And they probably will maintain the objective to call for a
referendum within the next four years.
What are the legal issues in Spain that make it complicated for
Catalonia's regional parliament to call a referendum on independence?
To call for a referendum, a secessionist referendum, in Spain is
illegal. It is against the constitutional framework. [But] there is a
way according to the Spanish rules -- the Catalan parliament and the
Catalan government must ask permission from the central power -- the
president of the Spanish government [Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy] --
to call for this referendum. But probably the answer will be "No, this
is illegal; this is impossible."
A second way is that the Catalan parliament approves a new law calling
for a referendum. But if they do that, immediately the central
government in Madrid will appeal to the Constitutional Court and the
Constitutional Court will say, "No. This is illegal."
Then the way the Catalan government has is to go to the international
framework -- mainly to the European Union but also to the United
Nations and the Council of Europe -- in order to say, "Look, there is
a clear demand of the Catalan population which is peaceful, which is
democratic, which is pro-European. And under the Spanish state, the
way is completely closed. What should we do to demand and to claim a
transnational legal framework with international observers and to
implement this referendum in the next four years with this legal
international framework?"
Do these legal complications make a referendum on independence less
likely for Catalonia?
It is less likely if we look at this issue from the Spanish side. The
Spanish side says, "Look, the main political leader who supported this
referendum has been weakened because he has lost 12 seats." But
looking at the same issue, the Catalan side says: "Look, we have a
clear majority to call for this referendum because 64 percent of our
representatives are in favor of that. Only 30-something percent is
against that." Here there is tension. Probably, this issue will be
permanent and with more intensive tension in the years to come.
http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/11/reading-the-elections-in-catalonia-will-this-mean-the-end-of-spain/265614/
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