David Cameron signed a treaty with Alex Salmond allowing Holyrood to
conduct its own referendum on Scottish independence in 2014. While
Cameron's spin doctors were busy telling everyone that he had put one
over on the First Minister by securing agreement to a single question,
the rest of Europe looked on in amazement.
Can you imagine Madrid allowing the Catalans to frame their own
independence question? Tanks would roll first. The truth is Cameron
had to concede the referendum to Holyrood out of weakness. In doing so
he has created a precedent some European politicians fear – giving
Europe's stateless nations the right to determine their own fate. And
they will.
On Sunday, Flemish nationalists represented by the NV-A party won the
municipal elections in their part of Belgium. The charismatic NV-A
leader, Bart De Wever, was elected mayor of Antwerp – akin to Alex
Salmond personally defeating Labour on Glasgow City Council. De Wever
immediately called for Home Rule for Flanders, the wealthy
Dutch-speaking part of Belgium. Next year sees a general election at
which the NV-A is expected to do even better.
In Catalonia, Spain's wealthiest region, calls for independence have
accelerated since 1.5 million people demonstrated on Catalan National
Day in September. The leader of the Catalan equivalent of then SNP,
Artur Mas, has called an election for November 25. Mas says he will
use the election to seek a mandate to hold an independence referendum.
Under Spanish law it is illegal for the Catalans to hold their own.
Mas says he will take his case to the EU, citing the Scottish
precedent.
How similar are the Scottish, Flemish and Catalan movements? The
recent rise of nationalism in Flanders and Catalonia is clearly
influenced by austerity. Both regions are the richest part of their
respective national economies and feel they are suffering higher taxes
and spending cuts to bail out central governments that failed to stop
the financial bubble or the euro crisis.
True, Catalonia has had to seek a fiscal bailout from Madrid but this
is not quite what it seems. Including emergency austerity taxes,
Catalonia is forced to transfer the equivalent of over 8 per cent of
its GDP to the rest of Spain. Without that requirement, Catalonia
would have no debt problem.
Does Scotland fit into this anti-austerity revolt? So far, the answer
is "not yet". This summer, support for outright independence has
slipped in Scotland. (Though demand for transferring all tax powers to
Holyrood remains by far the most popular choice.) In Catalonia, on the
other hand, 51 per cent of people now support independence. This
represents a six-point rise in only four months. It is actually the
first time that a majority of Catalans have called for a separate
state.
However, the No campaign should not count their referendum chickens
too soon. In both Flanders and Catalonia the nationalist tide has
turned unexpectedly in the last year, provoked by a worsening economic
situation. In the UK, Chancellor George Osborne is still rejecting
calls for growth. If there is a lesson to be drawn from Europe, it is
that nationalist sentiment will find a focus in economic grievance.
The threatened breakaways by Scots, Catalan and Flemish have also
re-opened the vexed question of whether new nations would remain
members of the EU, or have to re-apply (running the risk of being
vetoed by existing members anxious to stifle more secessions).
Different personalities in the European Commission have pronounced
different verdicts at different times, because the EU constitutional
treaty says nothing about the matter; and because international law is
profoundly unclear on the issue of the rights of successor states that
are not ex-colonies.
There is no consistent pattern in how such new states have been
treated. Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia claimed they were not "new"
states, but old ones taking back their sovereignty from Russia – an
argument that was largely accepted, and a route Scotland is expected
to follow. When Czechoslovakia became the Czech Republic and Slovakia,
they very amicably argued they were both equal successor states and
this was largely how they were treated. .
I dare say (for form's sake) that Flanders, Catalonia and Scotland
might have to apply for membership under Article 49 of the EU Treaty,
but using an accelerated process that runs parallel with those nations
negotiating the final details of separation from their mother states.
Meantime they would remain de facto members of the EU (as they
wouldn't yet be "independent"). Besides, it is difficult to see how
Brussels can throw the Flemish out of the EU when the EU capital is
marooned deep inside Flanders.
Yet the rise of new small nations in Europe poses a deeper question
about the EU: is the German-sponsored rush to full political union
really going to happen? Berlin sees the way out of the euro crisis
coming through fiscal and banking union, which in turn requires
European political union. But the sudden outbreak of small nation
fever suggests otherwise – that most Europeans want government closer
to home.
It could well be that Flanders, Catalonia and Scotland (in return for
EU membership) face calls to accept tough fiscal rules monitored by
Berlin. Indeed, I can hear the No campaign telling Scots that if they
vote for independence the EU will make them adopt the euro, wear black
berets and carry strings of onions round their neck. It won't happen.
The sight of 1.5 million cheerful Catalans demonstrating for national
sovereignty against EU austerity tells me that the rise of "small
nation" nationalism is the very antithesis of being told what to do by
Berlin. A new Europe of the nations is being born, to replace the
failed Europe of the bureaucrats and the bankers. Be they in Brussels,
Madrid or London.
http://www.newsnetscotland.com/index.php/scottish-opinion/6079-leading-the-way-into-a-bright-new-europe
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