overflowing with the red-and-yellow Catalan flag, a young political
activist can smell victory.
"Catalonia has to become an independent state, and it is almost
impossible to stop now," said Ignazi Termes, a member of La Assemblea
Nacional Catalana, an umbrella organisation of pro-independence
outfits.
The Spanish government is already struggling to cope with 25 per cent
unemployment, violent protests against spending cuts, and the prospect
that it will have to seek a bailout from euro-zone partners. It can
scarcely afford to deal with rebellious provinces, yet this is the
moment when Catalonia, its wealthy northeastern state, has decided to
strike off on the road to independence.
Outright independence for Catalonia, which has a strong economy based
on its early industrialisation, strategic location and a booming
tourism trade, has been largely the preserve of a radical fringe in
recent decades, even as many of the 7.5 million Catalans hold dearly
to their language and culture.
But that began to change in September 2009 when the local council in a
small town called Arenys de Munt tried to hold a referendum on
independence that was blocked by the Spanish authorities.
Over the next couple of years, local activists organised their own
privately run votes in hundreds of towns and villages, building a
momentum that finally burst into the open earlier this month when an
estimated one million people took to the streets of Barcelona.
That protest on September 11, Catalonia's national day known as "La
Diada", was the biggest show of support ever seen for independence.
No longer able to ignore the strength of popular feeling, the regional
president, Artur Mas, declared this week that his party would now
press for independence from Spain - the first time his moderate CiU
party has openly called for secession.
He called early elections for November 25 and, on Thursday, the
Catalan parliament voted for a referendum on independence to be held
on the same day.
The central government in Madrid reacted angrily, with prime minister
Mariano Rajoy saying it went against Spain's constitution and would
not be permitted.
The sudden outpouring of support for independence is partly the result
of the flagging Spanish economy, with Catalans increasingly bitter
about propping up poorer states through four years of grinding
recession. It blames an unfair tax relationship with Madrid for
plunging Catalonia into €40 billion (Dh190bn) of debt.
"After 25 years of helping the others, we are now in as much trouble
as them and even having to beg for money," said Agustin Paniker, a
Barcelona-based historian and publisher. "This is hard for Catalans to
accept."
"There is a total historical change happening," said Mr Paniker. "A
lot of people who were never nationalist are now pro-independence -
even people who don't speak Catalan. The young generation here has
lost any respect for the idea of a unified Spain."
Even if Mr Mas is simply exploiting nationalist sentiment to
consolidate his position and force financial concessions from Madrid,
the momentum will prove difficult to resist. Many gave up on
compromise with Madrid after the constitutional court there annulled
parts of Catalonia's statute of autonomy in 2010, four years after it
had come into force."We saw this as an insult," said Mr Termes. "Prior
to this, people were more interested in a federal system but, after
that, we realised Spain will always want to control everything."
Polls suggest pro-independence parties will do well in November. But
even if that holds, there are serious doubts about whether secession
is legally possible, or financially affordable. "I don't think
Catalonia's economy can survive without Spain, or vice versa," said Mr
Paniker. "They are obliged to find a compromise. It helps that Catalan
people are not very violent by nature - they seek consensus."
Professor Francesc de Carreras, a legal expert at the Autonomous
University of Barcelona, sees no possibility of Catalonia leaving
Spain of its own accord, accusing Mr Mas of having "no idea" about the
steps needed to declare independence. "The regional government doesn't
have the powers to do it. They are not permitted by the constitution
to hold a referendum - only Madrid can do so."
He argues that, far from needing further decentralisation, Spain is in
desperate need of closer integration. Since the 1980s, the country has
granted increasing freedom to its outlying states, in part as a
reaction against the 40-year dictatorship of General Francisco Franco
when regional differences were brutally suppressed. But
decentralisation has now gone far enough, said Prof de Carreras.
"It is one thing to promote language and culture, but that does not
have to work against the idea of a unified Spain.
"The Spanish concept of a federal state is similar to that of the US
before the civil war. For economic reasons, the time has come to
centralise. We need states that work together, not against each other.
"Nationalism will not bring any political or economic advantages. It
will only lead to a rise of leaders with a tribal mentality."
foreign.desk@thenational.ae
http://www.thenational.ae/news/world/europe/catalan-independence-impossible-to-stop
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