"Catalonia, next independent state in Europe". After a huge, peaceful
march with flags and banners through the city on September 11th
brought together an estimated 8% of the region's 7.5m population, a
once-exotic idea has suddenly come to life.
Artur Mas, the Catalan nationalist leader of the regional government,
publicly backed the marchers. "This cannot be ignored," he said.
"Catalonia needs a state." In one recent opinion poll, 51% of Catalans
say they would vote yes to independence. Even some non-separatists now
believe a referendum is needed. Yet Spain's constitution does not
allow splits and that is setting the country and its wealthiest region
on a collision course.
Mr Mas has been overtaken by events. Nobody expected the marchers to
be so numerous (Barcelona's La Vanguardia, a daily, sells "I was
there" photo CD-ROMs). He was already due to meet Mariano Rajoy, the
Spanish prime minister, on September 20th to demand a long-term tax
rebate. Mr Rajoy, more worried by a recession that has left a quarter
of Spaniards out of work, had been expected to hoof the idea into the
long grass. Independence gets even shorter shrift. "The reply is in
the constitution and our laws," said Mr Rajoy. These could be changed,
but only with difficulty and a bitter debate. Yet a no to his tax
demands now would boost separatist sentiment further, Mr Mas warns. If
snubbed, he may call elections, which would become a vote on
independence.
Separatists are excited, though the polls are misleading. Whereas
one-third of Catalans are convinced separatists, many others are
simply enraged by their tax money propping up poorer regions. Eight
percent of Catalan GDP, or €16 billion ($21 billion) a year, is
siphoned off, they claim. As regional health and education cuts in
Catalonia bite, they feel mugged.
No one now doubts that Mr Mas's once-ambiguous Democratic Catalan
Convergence party seeks independence in the long term, but it tends to
negotiate incremental advances. Its middle-class voters instinctively
hate confrontation. "It is like wanting to leave home without making
Daddy angry," says Pilar Rahola, a former separatist deputy. And they
hate instability. Memories of a civil war in the 1930s, in which
separatism loomed large, are too painful. That is why Mr Mas recoils
from the independentista or secessionist tags. "I am a sovereigntist,"
he explains, adding that nobody is independent within the European
Union.
A smooth transition to separate EU membership would require rule
changes in Brussels and Madrid. They may never come. In the short-term
Mr Mas demands a radical, but initially financially neutral, change to
the tax system—allowing his government to collect taxes and send them
to Madrid, rather than the other way around. Catalonia could later cut
its contribution. For nationalists, this would be another step towards
independence.
A third way, proposed by local socialists, is a new federation in
which Catalans would negotiate a special bilateral relationship with
other Spaniards. Some 28% of Catalans prefer that. A "no" vote at
referendum would take much, but not all, of the sting out of Catalan
complaints.
Francesc de Carreras at the Barcelona Autonomous University, an
anti-secessionist, says a vote would allow a proper debate and add
democratic weight to decision-making. Canada's 2000 Clarity Act,
allowing Quebec to vote first and negotiate after, provides a model.
Regional governments, which spend almost 40% of public money, blithely
ignored deficit targets last year. This year they will still push
Spain some 0.7 points above its 6.3% GDP target, set in Brussels,
predicts FEDEA, a think-tank. Mr Rajoy passed a law allowing the
centre to intervene in the finances of poorly performing regions. The
prime minister may now be too scared to use it.
The direct causes of Catalonia's economic woes are recession and
ruinous administration by previous regional governments. Independence
does not change that. It's not yet clear whether separatists are, as
Spain's king claims, merely "chimera chasers".
http://www.economist.com/node/21563347
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