by Alistair Spearing
A time traveller hopping from Barcelona in 2008 to the same city in
2013 could be forgiven for thinking his TARDIS had jumped a few
decades into the future. Where Spanish flags once fluttered proudly to
celebrate the country's first win in the European Football Cup since
1964, a mosaic of defiant estelades (the pro-independence version of
the Catalan flag) now brightly colours the balconies of Barcelona's
most important arteries. Where nationalist demonstrations once
struggled to hit the 300,000 mark, now they easily smash through the
1.5 million barrier. And, most importantly, where barely a fifth of
Catalans favoured independence, now support for it now consistently
exceeds two thirds of those expressing an opinion in polls.
Equalisation payments from the wealthier to the poorer regions in
Spain are significantly higher than in other countries of Western
Europe, but the catalyst for the Catalan drive for independence is not
the economy, at least not to a great extent. In fact, support for
separatism started ticking upwards when Spain's Constitutional Court
significantly curtailed the powers laid down in a new Statute of
Autonomy for Catalonia which had been approved by both the Catalan and
the Spanish parliaments. Regardless of whether the Constitutional
Court's decision was right or wrong, it sparked outrage at what many
perceived as yet another Madrid-based Spanish body riding roughshod
over the democratic will of the Catalan people.
The victory of the Spanish People's Party in the 2010 general election
only added fuel to the fire. The centre- -right party saw the economic
crisis as an opportunity to recentralise powers, something which
obviously didn't go down well in Catalonia and certain other
autonomous regions. President Rajoy tried to sound conciliatory, but
the damage was compounded by the words and actions of Education
Minister Ignacio Wert, who pledged to "Hispanicise Catalan pupils" and
drafted a law which would have relegated Catalan to the status of
fourth educational language, behind not only Spanish but also English
and a second foreign language. Many Catalans whose natural instinct
would have been to oppose separation from Spain saw this as an all-out
attack on their distinct cultural and linguistic identity and
reluctantly shifted their stance. Wert's plan backfired spectacularly
as an otherwise moderate chunk of Catalan society was pushed into
backing independence as a response to his adversarial tactics.
As it tries to ride the wave of public backing for independence and
avoid being swept by it, the Catalan government has repeatedly gone
out of its way to reassure everyone that Catalonia's separatism is
anything but isolationist. President Artur Mas himself has pledged his
allegiance to European federalism by calling for a distinct Catalan
state within a United States of Europe, where he suggests his nation
could play the same role as Massachusetts in America (not that
far-fetched, actually…). Despite a handful of dissonant voices here
and there, Mas' Convergence and Union party and its parliamentary
allies have managed to present a mostly unified front when it comes to
an independent Catalonia's place in Europe.
As in Scotland's case, there has been considerable discussion on
whether an independent Catalonia would get to keep its place in the
European Union. The Spanish Government says it would not, which was
dismissed by EU officials, which were in turn refuted by higher EU
officials, which were in turn overruled by even higher EU officials…
The whole issue is about as clear as mud, and in all honesty it looks
like it will only be resolved if Scotland and/or Catalonia vote for
independence and a test case is brought before European courts. In any
case, the Catalan Government has a Plan B that consists of joining
EFTA as soon as possible following independence in order to dampen the
economic shock of withdrawal and buy enough time for EU accession
negotiations to proceed.
The other key question revolves around the currency of an independent
Catalonia. While the political class is almost uniformly in favour of
keeping the euro, the media and society are more or less evenly
divided among those who think Catalonia would remain a full member of
the Eurozone, those who believe it would fall out of the eurozone but
be able to continue using the common currency à la Montenegro, and
those who've been scalded by the euro crisis and would like Catalonia
to print its own currency.
The Catalan independence process should not be seen as Catalonia
turning its back on the world, Europe or even Spain itself. Indeed,
while the short-term effects of a yes-to-independence vote would
certainly be disruptive, in the mid-to-long term the Catalan society
and political class see the nation firmly anchored to a federal
Europe.
Granted, a year is a very long time in politics, so Catalans may very
well end up getting cold feet and reluctantly vote to stay in Spain
(although, unlike in Scotland, the pro-independence lead in opinion
polls is the sort of margin that could realistically withstand a
fierce and protracted referendum campaign). One thing, however, is for
sure: come 2014, the eyes of Europe will be trained on this small
corner of the north-west Mediterranean looking for its place in Spain,
Europe and the world.
http://www.thenewfederalist.eu/Goodbye-Spain-Hello-Europe,05712
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