Àlex Calvo: 'Spain will be strongly tempted to resort to force against Catalonia' #eu #usa #politics #news

by Help Catalonia

Àlex Calvo is Professor of International Relations and International
Law, Head of the IR Department, and Postgraduate Research Director,
European University (Barcelona Campus). He express his opinion about
the conflict in this interview. An expert on Asian security and
defence issues, he got his LLB from the School of Oriental and African
Studies (SOAS, University of London) and is currently doing an MA in
Second World War Studies at the University of Birmingham.

—What do you think about the current tensions between Spanish and
Catalan police forces?

—First of all, we should be careful not to mix what Spanish
politicians may be doing with the position of rank-and-file Spanish
Police officers deployed in Catalonia. The former see Catalonia slowly
move away from their reach and resort to dirty tricks, in a desperate
attempt to keep what amounts to their last colony. These dirty tricks
include a smear campaign against Catalan institutions, including,
above all, the Catalan Police. The reasons are clear: the Mossos are
the most visible symbol of Catalan sovereignty. After all, the main
determinant of sovereignty is the monopoly on the legitimate use of
force in a given territory. Without a doubt, the Mossos are currently
the main state structure in Catalan hands. Furthermore, they are the
embryo of the future Catalan Armed Forces.

On the other hand, concerning the rank-and-file members of Spain's
National Police and Civil Guard (a constabulary-type police force) in
Catalonia, one can find a bit of everything. Many are to a large
degree integrated and try to keep away from controversies, sticking to
their jobs. They may by and large prefer that Catalonia remain inside
Spain, but they are not ready to commit war crimes to secure that
objective. Feeling Spanish is one thing, being ready to stand accused
before an international court and spend long years in jail quite
another. Not everybody is ready for martyrdom, the Alpine Redoubt was
after all a myth. More than that, many have already decided or will
end up deciding, to stay in Catalonia after independence. Catalan
Police already contains a number of former Spanish Police officers.


—What are your views on the Spanish Government's desire to see its
police forces become more visible and active in Catalonia at this
particular juncture?

—This is part of what some English-language media have rightly
labelled "mutual fatigue". Catalans are fed up with the regional
government system, for a number of reasons. These include not being
able to fly direct to New York, take a train to Paris, or participate
in Airbus or the F-35 consortium. This is on top of the discrimination
against our language, the inability to lay down and implement our own
policies in some key areas, and the loss of 8% of our GDP every year.
Having said that, we must be realistic and objective and understand
that Spaniards are also fed up with us and with regional governments.
They find the powers of the Catalan Government (Generalitat)
excessive, cannot stand the public use of our language, and fear that
even self-professed Loyalist Catalans secretly harbour
pro-independence feelings or may go for sovereignty if they have the
chance.

This mutual fatigue has led to a crossroads from which only two paths
follow: a return to a unitary Spanish state and the death of Catalonia
as a nation with its own personality and culture, or the recovery of
Catalan sovereignty and subsequent split from Spain. Federalism is a
dead end because there are no Federalists in Spain.

—Why does Madrid deem it so important to get a more visible public
presence for its police forces?

—This is part of their efforts to recover "lost ground", that is the
powers that they devolved to Catalonia after Franco's death. On a
symbolic plane they want to make it clear that Catalonia belongs to
Spain. At a functional level, they want to reduce the Mossos to a
folkloric agency, a tourist attraction, to later take them over.
Something that Madrid found very annoying was to see the Mossos take
part in a number of international operations against organized crime
and to jointly train with police forces from other countries. This
makes Catalonia more visible as a country and reinforces the prestige
of our police.


—How could these tensions among police forces have an impact on the
self-determination process?

—Tensions are tightly linked to the self-determination process. If
Catalonia finally holds a referendum, the Mossos d'Esquadra and local
police forces will play a key role in guaranteeing security and
preventing incidents. If the Catalan Parliament ends up issuing a
declaration of independence, an option which looks increasingly
likely, they will have to guarantee security during some very intense
days. In that period, Catalonia will have to negotiate the recognition
by other states and Spain will be strongly, very strongly, tempted to
resort to force. At that stage it is very important to prevent a
bloodless "coup" by Spanish forces allowing them to take over
Catalonia without making too much noise. If, on the contrary, they
have to openly employ force, international pressure on Madrid will be
strong enough to stop them.

Let us not forget that Spain is unable to repay her national debt
without Catalonia, and since she is part of the euro zone, Madrid
cannot print any money. Therefore, they will have to recognize Catalan
independence in exchange for Catalonia taking up a portion of their
national debt. If Spain falls, she will bring down the whole of the
euro zone with her, something that the European Union and the United
States cannot allow. However, to reach this point, it will be
necessary to resist for a few days.

—What do you think about the role of Barcelona's local police force,
the "Guardia Urbana?

—Although not much mentioned these days, it is in charge of some key
tasks, such as providing personal security for the mayor. In the event
of a crisis, it must guarantee his ability to stay in touch with the
outside world. In both a referendum and a declaration of independence
scenarios, the Guardia Urbana will be called to play a significant
role.

—To what extent are the police forces being politicized?

—I am bit reluctant to call it "politicization", since it is not
related to party politics. We have entered a stage where both
Catalonia and Spain are increasingly acting in terms of national
projects. Divisions among parties are quickly giving way to two
blocks. One defends a recovery of Catalan sovereignty, or at least the
chance for the people to decide on it. The other struggles to keep
Catalonia under Spain. Since Catalonia currently has no armed forces,
and on the Spanish side resorting to them would not look too good on
CNN, the clash is mainly taking place at the police level.

http://www.helpcatalonia.cat/2013/03/spain-will-be-strongly-very-strongly.html

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